Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.088643 0.101603 0.115705 0.132175 0.150873 0.171427 0.195724
2026-01-25 0.066040 0.082118 0.100984 0.124713 0.153718 0.187974 0.231460
2026-02-01 0.049331 0.066204 0.087448 0.116067 0.153515 0.200742 0.264711
2026-02-08 0.038318 0.055327 0.078233 0.111171 0.157129 0.218767 0.307463
2026-02-15 0.029900 0.046344 0.069977 0.106154 0.159825 0.236137 0.352405
2026-02-22 0.025031 0.041503 0.066675 0.107549 0.171775 0.268194 0.423086
2026-03-01 0.019913 0.035283 0.060234 0.103152 0.174460 0.287286 0.478013
2026-03-08 0.016133 0.030478 0.055155 0.100009 0.178598 0.309287 0.541089
2026-03-15 0.013177 0.026488 0.050704 0.097114 0.182662 0.331815 0.608690
2026-03-22 0.011478 0.024455 0.049331 0.099412 0.196165 0.372372 0.713433
2026-03-29 0.009725 0.021942 0.046596 0.098680 0.204012 0.404122 0.807415
2026-04-05 0.008389 0.020002 0.044617 0.099064 0.214066 0.441463 0.917541
2026-04-12 0.007321 0.018458 0.043267 0.100739 0.227529 0.488437 1.055761
2026-04-19 0.005984 0.015981 0.039416 0.096336 0.227600 0.508871 1.144363
2026-04-26 0.004813 0.013616 0.035325 0.090588 0.223733 0.520621 1.217075
2026-05-03 0.004003 0.011968 0.032591 0.087491 0.225376 0.544633 1.320578
2026-05-10 0.003321 0.010486 0.029948 0.084082 0.225679 0.565770 1.421263
2026-05-17 0.002957 0.009818 0.029289 0.085665 0.238675 0.618595 1.604453
2026-05-24 0.002474 0.008657 0.027028 0.082482 0.238862 0.640701 1.717363
2026-05-31 0.002099 0.007733 0.025231 0.080215 0.241086 0.668286 1.848467
2026-06-07 0.001789 0.006928 0.023597 0.078079 0.243287 0.696213 1.985044
2026-06-14 0.001627 0.006596 0.023357 0.080112 0.257833 0.759159 2.223908
2026-06-21 0.001430 0.006074 0.022385 0.079649 0.264938 0.803002 2.417814